While exact rainfall amounts remain difficult to forecast this far out, it is possible for many of the region's typically "wetter" urban locations to pick up 0.10-0.25" with the coastal ranges potentially exceeding 0.50" from late Saturday night into early next week. One of the reasons our confidence is increasing for an early season rain is that the deterministic and ensemble guidance are converging on a more similar solution with greater than 50 percent of ensemble solutions indicating widespread precipitation over the region. This will bring increasing rain chances to the North Bay as early as late Saturday before spreading southward across the Bay Area and Central Coast on Sunday. This system will drive a frontal boundary into northern California late Saturday into Sunday which will interact with deeper moisture advection into the region. Forecast confidence continues to increase with respect to the development and track of this system as it becomes a closed mid/upper level low off of northern and central California late in the weekend. All this said, tranquil weather conditions and temperatures below seasonal averages will persist into late week as the mid/upper level pattern changes very little in the days ahead.Ī more significant change in the upper level pattern is expected through the upcoming weekend as a trough develops over the Gulf of Alaska and drops southward down the Pacific Northwest coast. This pattern also supports the development of low clouds along the coastal ranges and into the interior hills. This is as the region remains under the influence of a broad mid/upper level trough. Moderate northwest flow prevails over the region this afternoon with temperatures generally in the 60s near the coast to 70s inland. However, most of the ensembles have the rain arriving on Sunday afternoon, so there was no need to adjust the timing of that just yet, but will have to be monitored through each new model run. A few few of the models have the parent low stalling a bit over the ocean which would delay the arrival of the rain to overnight into Monday. More and more ensemble members are showing the chance for rain which translates to increasing confidence however, there is varying degrees at the exact timing. The rest of the focus will be on the next weather system dropping down on Sunday providing a chance for showers. The long wave trough drives zonal onshore flow over the Bay Area offering only little variability day-to-day through Saturday. No major updates to the forecast at this time. There was no lightning involved and it quickly fizzled out. There was weak convection out over the southern waters earlier today, so the radar was switched into precip mode for a short time. A deep marine layer leaves patchy cloud cover across the Bay Area tonight. The potential for early season rainfall late this weekend into early next week continues to increase and would favor continued cool temperatures.ĭISCUSSION. Temperatures are forecast to remain cooler than normal across the region through late week with breezy onshore winds at times. Rain likely.Īrea Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (on/off) Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definitionĪrea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1051 PM PDT Wed Sep 14 2022 Sat.NW winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. S swell around 2 ft at 11 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 14 seconds. ![]() S swell around 2 ft at 13 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 15 seconds.įri night.NW winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. S swell around 2 ft at 11 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 15 seconds.įri.NW winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Tonight.NW winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. S swell around 2 ft at 12 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 16 seconds. small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday evening. small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight. PZZ560 Coastal Waters From Pigeon Point To Point Pinos California Out To 10 Nm- 246 Am Pdt Thu Sep 15 2022
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